De overopphetede NFT-ene? En kryptomarkedsnisje tipset til bom eller byste

En pyramidespill der „noen vil bli brent“ eller en „spennende innovasjon?“ Er dette året med det ikke-ustabile tokenet?

I en virvelvind på syv dager, som begynte med at Twitter-grunnlegger Jack Dorsey beviste at nesten alt kan tokeniseres – til og med hans gamle tweets – og kulminerte på torsdag med en Christie’s kunstauksjon som brakte et forbløffende $ 69,3 millioner bud for en tokenisert Beeple arbeid – å hente mer på en auksjon enn stykker av George Seurat, Paul Gaugain eller Salvador Dalí – noen observatører spurte: Spirer ikke-ustabile tokens ut av kontroll ?

Allerede før det store auksjonshuset katapulterte kunstneren Mike Winkelmann, også kjent som Profit Revolution, inn i det sjeldne selskapet Jeff Coons og David Hockney – dvs. levende kunstnere som var i stand til å beordre stratosfæriske priser for verkene sine – spurte noen om markedets sunnhet. Markedsføringsguru og forfatter Seth Godin skrev for eksempel i et blogginnlegg:

„NFT er en farlig felle,“ og den nåværende manien er „en uregulert, ikke-gjennomsiktig mas med“ boble „skrevet over det.“

I mellomtiden, 8. mars, solgte en NFT-versjon av et bevisst brent Banksy- maleri for nesten $ 400 000 på markedet OpenSea, og fikk Zavier Ellis, direktør for et London-galleri, til å fortelle Storbritannias The Telegraph: “Jeg lurer på om dette er en eller annen form av pyramidesalg der til slutt noen vil bli brent. ” David Knowles, som driver et kunstrådgivningsfirma, Artelier, kommenterte at det å kjøpe moderne kunstverk generelt er risikabelt, men å kjøpe ikke-fungible tokens ser ut til å være den „ekstreme enden“ på dette.

Det spørs etter en slik uke: Bobler NFT-markedet, og i så fall vil folk bli skadet ?

På vei mot et fall?

„NFT er en spennende innovasjon,“ sa Fabian Schär, professor i forretnings- og økonomiavdelingen ved Universitetet i Basel, til Cointelegraph, „men det betyr ikke at hver doodle plutselig er verdifull bare fordi den er representert av en ERC-721 eller ERC-1155 token, ”og legger til:

„Det er noen interessante prosjekter der ute, og de vil sannsynligvis komme for å bli, men de aller fleste NFT-er vil være helt verdiløse når sprøytenarkomanen er over.“

„Jeg vil ikke si at ting er ute av kontroll, men NFT ser ut til å ha blitt dagens hete trend, og så mange opportunister hopper på banen, i håp om å tjene raskt,“ Gary Bracey, medstifter og administrerende direktør i Terra Virtua, fortalte Cointelegraph. „Jeg frykter overmetting av middelmådige produkter og nykommere som ikke gir noe innovativt eller annet til partiet.“

Hva kan være det som driver denne spekulasjonen? Misha Libman, medstifter av kunstmarkedet Snark.art, sa til Cointelegraph: “De høye prisene er knyttet til at regjeringer pumper billioner av dollar inn i den globale økonomien for å motvirke skaden forårsaket av pandemien, og denne overflødige likviditeten viser seg over hele borde.“

Men forårsaker bobler vanligvis noen skader når de sprekker? Svarte Bracey: „Jeg vil tro at folk er smartere enn det, og vil ikke falle for noen av“ Emperor’s New Clothes „shenanigans.“ Hele NFT-samfunnet ville bli påvirket negativt hvis ting skulle sprekke, foreslo Libman og la til:

„Men jeg tror det er viktig å merke seg at den nåværende oppmerksomheten og investeringen i sektoren også bidrar til å bygge den sårt tiltrengte infrastrukturen og verktøyene som vil gjøre det enklere og billigere å bygge prosjekter som bruker blockchain-teknologien.“

Litecoin briefly overtakes XRP as fourth largest cryptocurrency

Litecoin briefly overtakes XRP as fourth largest cryptocurrency

The problems for XRP briefly caused it to drop from 4th to 5th place in terms of market capitalisation.

Litecoin (LTC) and XRP briefly swapped places in the market cap rankings over the weekend. This again highlights the impact of the recent lawsuit against Ripple by the US Securities and Exchange Commission.

The so-called „flippening“ happened on Sunday, when Bitcoin Machine Litecoin’s market capitalisation rose to $9.95 billion after its price jumped more than 12 percent. XRP, on the other hand, had fallen more than 25 percent.

LITECOIN JUST FLIPPED XRP pic.twitter.com/yjBq15JtpV
– HODLGeorge (@BitfuryGeorge) January 3, 2021

At press time, XRP was back in fourth place with a market cap of $10.5bn. Litecoin, meanwhile, was at just over US$9.9bn. Over the past seven days, the Litecoin price has grown by about 14 percent, while XRP has fallen by almost 20 percent.

The Litecoin price has more than doubled since mid-December. This also underlines Bitcoin’s impact on the market as a whole. XRP was also soaring before the SEC announced a lawsuit against Ripple for alleged violations of securities laws. From peak to trough, XRP has fallen more than 73 percent, according to CoinMarketCap data.

XRP is sure to struggle to recover from this as investors await the outcome of the lawsuit

The process could take several years. Without a settlement with the SEC, XRP could struggle to regain momentum. Denotations on major exchanges also threaten XRP’s recovery potential.

Meanwhile, Litecoin’s rise probably has more to do with Bitcoin than a change in the underlying fundamentals of the project. Cointelegraph highlighted an apparent surge in altcoin volume in December, when the bitcoin price broke through the US$20,000 mark.

The total market capitalisation of all cryptocurrencies rose to an all-time high over the weekend, peaking at around US$907 billion.

Twitter barst los terwijl Elon Musk Mulls Tesla-activa omzet in Bitcoin

Nu cryptocurrencies steeds aantrekkelijker worden voor vermogende particulieren, is het geen wonder dat meer mensen hun portefeuilles mogelijk willen converteren. Elon Musk, de CEO van Tesla Motors, deed onlangs navraag naar een dergelijke mogelijke stap op Twitter, wat leidde tot gesprekken tussen crypto-bulls en sceptici.

Bitcoin: te verleidelijk om te negeren

Op zondag ging Musk naar Twitter om een meme te delen waarin hij beschreef hoeveel Bitcoin de laatste tijd aantrekkelijk voor hem was. De meme ging viraal en velen dachten dat Musk een deel van zijn gerapporteerde rijkdom van $ 146,3 miljard in de leidende cryptocurrency wilde stoppen.

Dit is niet de eerste poging van Musk met Bitcoin. In 2019 legde hij uit dat hij slechts 0,25 BTC bezat, die hij van een vriend kreeg. Terwijl de miljardair cryptocurrencies ‚briljant‘ had genoemd, legde hij uit dat hij geen echt bezit had. Het is onduidelijk of hij sindsdien nog meer eenheden van de cryptocurrency heeft opgekocht.

Musk’s recente tweet trok reacties van een aantal opmerkelijke namen. Michael Saylor, de chief executive van Business Intelligence-bedrijf MicroStrategy, antwoordde de miljardair en adviseerde dat Musk de balans van Tesla naar Bitcoin zou kunnen converteren. Zoals Saylor uitlegde:

“Als u uw aandeelhouders een gunst van $ 100 miljard wilt bewijzen , converteer dan de $ TSLA- balans van USD naar #BTC . Andere bedrijven op de S&P 500 zouden uw voorbeeld volgen en na verloop van tijd zou dit uitgroeien tot een gunst van $ 1 biljoen. “

MicroStrategy sloot dit jaar beroemd geld af voor crypto en kocht in augustus $ 425 miljoen in Bitcoin. De waarde van het actief is sindsdien bijna verdubbeld, wat aanzienlijke financiële voordelen heeft opgeleverd voor het in Virginia gevestigde bedrijf.

Het bedrijf verdubbelde onlangs en kondigde een kapitaalverhoging van $ 650 miljoen aan. Zoals uitgelegd, zal MicroStrategy het kapitaal gebruiken om meer Bitcoin te kopen.

Het is volstrekt onduidelijk hoe Tesla een soortgelijke stap zou kunnen zetten. Het bedrijf kende een aanzienlijke stijging in 2020, waarbij de aandelen op het moment van de pers op $ 695 werden verhandeld, wat het bedrijf een waardering van $ 658 miljard opleverde. Yahoo! Uit financiële gegevens bleek dat het bedrijf vorig jaar $ 34 miljard aan totale activa had. De stijging van 2020 zou dit aantal veel hoger hebben gebracht, en het omzetten van deze waarde naar Bitcoin zou bijna onmogelijk zijn.

Dat merkte Musk door Saylor te vragen of een transactie op een dergelijke schaal mogelijk is. Saylor antwoordde en legde uit dat hij dit jaar meer dan $ 1,3 miljard in Bitcoin had gekocht, en bood aan om zijn playbook met Musk te delen.

Doge stijgt op een musk-referentie

Musk bracht zijn zondag door met nadenken over verschillende onderwerpen en niet alleen over Bitcoin. De Tesla-miljardair tweette een Dogecoin-referentie in een aparte tweet en veranderde zijn Twitter-bio in „voormalig CEO van Dogecoin.“

De tweet stuurde Dogecoin op een stijging, waarbij de prijs van het activum op het moment van drukken van $ 0,003947 naar $ 0,004831 sprong. Musk heeft eerder getweet over het op meme geïnspireerde digitale activum en beweerde in juli dat hij een Dogecoin-standaard toekomst voorzag. De tweet stuurde Dogecoin met 14 procent.

Compound (COMP) regains its footing and attempts an ascending continuity

The COMP trades between the support at $ 130 and resistance at $ 175.

The next areas of resistance can be found at $ 200 and $ 230.

The Bitcoin Profit follows a short term ascending support line as well as a longer term one.

The Compound (COMP) price has been declining since the rejection on December 8 by the 0.5 fibonacci retracement level. However, it appears to have halted its decline and should continue to move closer to the targets stated in this article.

Progress followed by rejection

The price of COMP has been rising since it hit a record high of $ 80.62 on November 3. On December 5, COMP broke through the old resistance at $ 130, validated it as support, and then continued to rise. That said, it was rejected by the $ 176 fibonacci retracement level 0.5.

Technical indicators are neutral, with a bullish lean. The Stochastic Oscillator has made a bearish cross, while the MACD and RSI are higher. The RSI also generated a large hidden bullish divergence.

If the COMP breaks its resistance, the next resistance zones would be at $ 200 and $ 230, which is the fibonacci retracement levels 0.618 and 0.786.

The six-hour chart shows the COMP following two ascending support lines. The first, long-term, has been in place since the previous low on November 3. The second is shorter term and dates from December 6.

At the time of writing this analysis, the COMP is trading above the short-term line and minor support at $ 140. This is an area he has just regained

If price breaks below that line and below $ 140, the next support zone will be at $ 128. The latter coincides with the longer term ascending support line.

The short-term two-hour chart shows that the short broke through a descending resistance line (dotted) in addition to the support levels described earlier.

Once the COMP successfully crosses the $ 159 mark, the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement of the previous decline, it is expected to continue to rise at an accelerated pace.

Rapper Logic invests $6 million in Bitcoin and is the latest celebrity to catch cryptomeda virus

Depending on when exactly he bought, Logic can already make a $2 million profit.

After actress Maisie Williams of Game of Thrones asked for advice on whether to buy Bitcoin (BTC) earlier this week, rapper Logic dove headfirst into Bitcoin.

In a video posted in an Instagram story, Logic, whose real name is Sir Robert Bryson Hall II, bragged „he bought six million in Bitcoin last month“ while making the gesture of pulling the collar popularised by fellow rapper Xzibit on the mid-1990s MTV show Pimp My Ride.

He kept trying to make it no big deal, muttering „F*** himself“, „YOLO“ (which means „You only live once“) and „Seriously …“.

Despite his stance, Logic’s investment may turn out to be a particularly cunning financial move.

At worst, if „last month“ meant that the rapper made the investment at the top of the market on 31 October, his US$6 million would have bought about 433 BTC at a price of about US$13,850.

Today, these 433 BTCs are worth US$7,926,500 at the time of publication of this article, representing a profit of almost US$2 million.

However, the likelihood that this is the exact point at which Logic purchased is small.

If the rapper used the phrase „last month“ to refer to a month ago, then his purchase price may have been US$11,760. Those hypothetical 510 BTCs would now be worth $9.3 million, or a gain of $3.3 million.

And, of course, if days and weeks mean little to man, then it is possible that he could be referring to an investment around the beginning of October. That would have yielded him almost 570 BTC at a price of about $10,550.

That would now be worth $10.4 million, representing a profit of $4.4 million, or a return of almost 75% on his initial investment.

Logic has since changed his Twitter name to Bobby Bitcoin. „YOLO“ indeed.

BSN: China is pushing ahead with the BSN blockchain initiative

With the BSN initiative, China wants to take the lead in the digital transformation of the global economy. Now new partners have been won again.

CRYPTO 10 Hedged (C10) is an intelligent index fund that offers investors access to the top 10 cryptocurrencies while limiting the loss of capital through a dynamic cash hedging algorithm

The advantages of this new compatibility are many. Polkadot’s blockchain protocol was developed to connect several specialized blockchains into a unified network. Crypto Code also enables numerous transactions to be processed on multiple parallel chains. The bottom line is that this leads to higher network capacity. With Chinese regulators scrutinizing decentralized public blockchains, this new integration is the opportunity for Polkadot developers to join BSN’s Open Permissioned Blockchain Initiative.

Oasishas made a name for itself with its financial tools specializing in private and scalable solutions. At Bityuanis a provider of blockchain solutions for Chinese companies. At the beginning of the year, BSN had already realized a significant expansion of its network portfolio. Since then, Ethereum, Tezos, Neo, EOSIO and IrisNet have also been part of the BSN ecosystem. BSN’s goal is to provide a centralized blockchain framework. This would mean that the leading networks would act together under one roof.

Thanks to BSN, China wants to take on a pioneering role

The Blockchain Service Network (BSN) is China’s most ambitious blockchain project. The country is planning to take the lead in the digital transformation of the global economy. BSN was originally launched in 2019. The international version of the network, on the other hand, was launched in July this year. The international publication wanted to give blockchain developers the opportunity to create and operate decentralized applications and thus contribute to the spread of BSN. However, in order to use and manage their own approved projects on BSN International, the developers should have an account on the official website set up.

This website also introduces a number of large global technology and blockchain companies as BSN partners. Google and Amazon Web Services (AWS) are listed there as providers of cloud services. Hyperledger is noted as an approved blockchain provider.

We have good support from several of the major cloud service providers because they really like the idea and vision of BSN

Bitcoin forblir ut av Chinese Institute’s Top 10 Cryptos når bedriftens adopsjon vokser

Kinas senter for informasjonsteknologi og Industry Development (CCID), en organisasjon under landets departementet for industri og informasjonsteknologi, har gitt ut sin 20 th krypto prosjekt rangeringer, og Bitcoin er fortsatt ute av topp 10.

Ifølge Bitcoin.com , av totalt 37 kryptokurrencyprosjekter rangert basert på grunnleggende teknologi, anvendelighet og kreativitet, klarte ikke flaggskipskryptovalutaen å komme inn på topp 10 til tross for å få noen få rangeringer, mens de fire beste posisjonene gikk til EOS, Ethereum ,. IOST, og TRON.

Bitcoin har likevel klatret opp fra 14 th posisjon og er fortsatt over noen andre kjente cryptoassets

Dash erstattet angivelig NEO for å komme inn på topp fem, og ble fulgt av BitShares og Cosmos. Bitcoin kom i 11 th sted på grunn av en heller lav score i “basic tech”, kommer inn under de fleste andre cryptoassets her. Når det gjaldt anvendbarhet, var BTC-poengsummen også under de fleste andre kryptoer, til tross for den økende adopsjonen.

CCID har avdekket at subindeksen for grunnleggende teknologi står for 65% av poengsummen, mens anvendbarheten subindekserer 20%, mens den resterende går til kreativitet. Rapporten kom ut da prisen på bitcoin brøt $ 17.000 tilsynelatende takket være en svakere dollarindeks (DXY) og markedssentimentet var på “ekstreme grådighetsnivåer”.

Prisen på bitcoin har sannsynligvis hatt fordeler av økende bedriftsadopsjon og PayPals nye tjeneste som lar brukere kjøpe, selge og holde kryptovalutaer på plattformen.

Tjenesten er foreløpig bare tilgjengelig for brukere i USA og støtter BTC, BCH, LTC og ETH

I følge et nettsted som sporer bitcoins bruk i selskapets statskasser, har 15 børsnoterte selskaper nå eksponering for BTC, og noen har sett at investeringene deres verdsettes betydelig siden de kjøpte kryptovalutaen.

MicroStrategies ’satsing på $ 425 millioner på flaggskipskryptovalutaen, for eksempel, så at den kjøpte 38 250 BTC, som nå er verdt over $ 640 millioner. På samme måte er Squares 50 millioner dollar nå 78 millioner dollar. Noen av de andre børsnoterte firmaene med bitcoineksponering inkluderer BTC-gruvedrift som Hut 8 Mining, Argo Blockchain og Riot Blockchain.

Grayscale: Bitcoin popularity and COVID-19 pandemic are related

According to the data collected by the investment company, the current pandemic has played an important role in the choices of investors

While the price of Bitcoin continues to rise and traders are trying to reach the new all-time high, the wave of mainstream financial institutions approaching Bitcoin (BTC) is not stopping.

Unlike the 2017 bull run, this time both institutional and retail investors want to accumulate Bitcoin: data on crypto derivatives shows that big players are driving BTC-based product volumes skyrocketing.

The volume of BTC futures per single exchange. Source: Digital Asset Data
The volume of BTC futures per exchange. Source: Digital Asset Data
According to research by Grayscale Investments, a digital investment management company that currently holds over $10 billion in assets under management, the coronavirus pandemic could be one of the main drivers of Bitcoin’s current growth.

According to the company’s survey, 83% of all Bitcoin investors Bitcoin Superstar scam started in the last 12 months, a period when COVID-19 infections were minimal.

38% of current Bitcoin investors surveyed have made their first purchase in the last four months, and among them, 63% said that the economic turmoil caused by COVID-19 influenced their decision to invest in BTC.

Bitcoin is becoming mainstream
Grayscale’s figures also show that Bitcoin is becoming increasingly popular among the general public and investors. In fact, in 2020, 55% of respondents expressed interest in buying Bitcoin, a substantial increase from 36% in 2019.

Almost half of the survey respondents also believe that cryptocurrency will be a mainstream medium of exchange by the end of the decade.

It is likely that the tendency of investors to be attracted to the idea of Bitcoin as a reservoir of value is growing, and it is possible that mainstream adoption may come sooner than many believe. Just think of a recent Citibank report, in which the author estimates that the price of BTC could reach $318,000 by December 2021.

Will Bitcoin become less attractive once COVID is defeated?

According to some investors, the question of how the price of Bitcoin will react to the defeat of COVID-19 is extremely relevant. According to Jonathan Hobbs, author of The Crypto Portfolio and a former digital fund manager, the effects of the pandemic will be felt for a long time, even after the disease itself is finally defeated. Hobbs told Cointelegraph:

„The Covid-19 was the match that lit the flame of institutional adoption. But the wood was already accumulating from before. Now that the fire is burning, however, it will take a lot of water to put it out. When the world is finally free of Covid-19, the economy will still be full of debts.

And central banks will continue to print money to try to get rid of those debts, as they did after the 2008 financial crisis. This means that the narrative that Bitcoin is a good defence against inflation will probably continue after the end of the pandemic“.

It is clear that the massive economic stimulus plans and the expansion of monetary policy have changed the economic picture in the near future. While some analysts may overestimate the impact of the pandemic on Bitcoin’s growth, it is clear that it has played an important role in accelerating investor interest in cryptocurrency.

One of the main positive factors identified by investors are the low barriers to entry into the Bitcoin world and its ability to gain value even when there is a lot of volatility in traditional markets is now proven. That said, these elements are likely to continue to have a significant impact on BTC even when the pandemic ends.

Les anciens clients ne peuvent pas noyer leur chagrin alors que le tout premier bar à accepter la fermeture de Bitcoin

Fermeture du légendaire point d’eau de Berlin et du centre de Bitcoin

Un bar et un restaurant légendaire en Allemagne, qui aurait été le premier à accepter la cryptoconnaie comme moyen de paiement, a définitivement fermé ses portes.

Selon un post Reddit du 18 octobre de Joerg Platzer, fondateur de Room 77, la première entreprise de brique et de mortier à accepter les bitcoins (BTC) n’accepte plus de clients et a fermé ses portes. Dans un message d’adieu truffé de références au „Guide de l’auto-stoppeur dans la galaxie“ de Douglas Adams, Platzer a dit „merci encore pour tout le poisson et les généreux pourboires“ après plus de 15 ans d’activité en occupant „ce petit coin de Berlin Kreuzberg“.

„Nous avons passé un bon moment“, a déclaré Platzer. „Nous nous sommes beaucoup amusés et nous nous sommes fait beaucoup d’amis. Il est clair à présent que plus personne n’arrêtera Bitcoin. L’argent sain à l’échelle mondiale rendra bientôt impossible les guerres et créera l’égalité économique entre les hommes“.

La salle 77, „le restaurant de la fin du capitalisme“ situé dans le quartier de Kreuzberg à Berlin, en Allemagne, aurait été le premier endroit au monde à accepter les bitcoins comme moyen de paiement. Platzer a affirmé avoir reçu le premier paiement crypté en mai 2011 pour une pinte de bière.

Étant donné que le prix moyen de la bière en Allemagne est d’environ 4,10 dollars et que Bitcoin venait alors d’atteindre la parité avec le dollar américain, le client aurait facilement pu payer sa boisson avec plus d’un BTC – qui coûte maintenant 11 432 dollars. C’est une boisson de grande qualité.

Les utilisateurs de Crypto Twitter ont rapidement sauté sur l’occasion avec leurs histoires de pèlerinage au légendaire bar Bitcoin. Cointelegraph a rapporté que même l’éducateur de Bitcoin, Andreas Antonopoulos, avait transformé les propriétaires d’entreprises locales en cryptophiles après une rencontre fortuite dans le bar.

„Une visite à Berlin n’était jamais complète sans passer par la salle 77“, a déclaré Eric Lombrozo, développeur de Bitcoin Core. „Cet endroit restera toujours une partie de l’histoire de Bitcoin“.

Phil Lucsok a partagé des souvenirs de sa première expérience de crypto dans le monde réel :

„Quand j’ai eu Bitcoin pour la première fois, je voulais juste le passer quelque part à AFK. Je suis arrivé à la chambre 77 en début d’après-midi de printemps 2013 et j’ai commandé un café car je ne voulais ni bière ni nourriture, je voulais juste dépenser de la monnaie décentralisée pour la première fois de ma vie“.

Platzer n’a pas fourni de raison précise pour la fermeture, mais d’anciens clients spéculent sur le fait que cela pourrait être lié aux restrictions dues à la pandémie. La semaine dernière, les autorités ont annoncé un couvre-feu obligeant les bars de Berlin à fermer entre 23 heures et 6 heures du matin et à limiter les rassemblements à 25 personnes maximum à l’intérieur.

Bien que l’interdiction ait été levée par la suite, de nombreuses entreprises dans le monde connaissent une baisse de leurs revenus en raison de la diminution du tourisme et du nombre de personnes qui restent à l’intérieur.

„C’est la faute de COVID ou de l’embourgeoisement“, a déclaré le crypto-économiste Jon Matonis sur Twitter. „Quoi qu’il en soit, ce point de repère de Kreuzberg a servi de point d’eau à Bitcoin pendant plus de 10 ans, des milliers de personnes faisant le pèlerinage obligatoire“.

Os melhores negociantes vão muito depois dos comícios de preços de Bitcoin para a chave $11,5K de resistência

O prêmio dos contratos futuros e a relação longo/curto mostra que os principais comerciantes se sentem em alta sobre o preço da Bitcoin.

Em 7 de outubro, a Cointelegraph informou que os principais comerciantes de criptografia tinham mantido uma posição de baixa desde meados de setembro e, na época, a relação Bitcoin (BTC) de longo a curto prazo tinha atingido seu nível mais baixo em 10 semanas. Tudo isso mudou em questão de horas assim que o BTC quebrou a resistência de 11.000 dólares.

Sempre que a volatilidade do Bitcoin fica muito baixa, isso geralmente sinaliza que os comerciantes se tornaram muito complacentes. Naturalmente, haverá períodos de negociação de gama, mas a imprevisibilidade a curto prazo é a característica que define a Bitcoin.

Para comerciantes profissionais, a volatilidade implícita é comumente conhecida como índice de medo porque mede o prêmio médio que está sendo pago no mercado de opções. Qualquer movimento substancial de preços inesperado (tanto negativo quanto positivo) fará com que o indicador aumente acentuadamente.

Bitcoin 3 meses de volatilidade implícita.

Observe como as opções de 3 meses recentemente atingiram seus níveis mais baixos em dezessete meses. Isto não deve ser interpretado como um mercado sem risco, já que a volatilidade de 3 meses do S&P 500 se situa atualmente em 28%. Isso não é nem a metade dos 60% atuais do Bitcoin; portanto, uma vela diária de 500 dólares não deve ser uma surpresa.

Nas duas semanas mais recentes, o preço da Bitcoin foi negociado na faixa de US$ 10.400 a US$ 10.900 e os futuros BTC aumentaram os juros abertos em US$ 300 milhões. Isto mostra que, embora tenha sido um período aparentemente tranquilo, os comerciantes tinham aumentado suas apostas.
Gráfico de 3 horas do BTC/USD.

Independentemente da razão por trás do mais recente movimento de preços, os principais comerciantes apressaram-se a cobrir suas posições curtas. Enquanto isso, o prêmio dos contratos futuros tem permanecido modesto, sinalizando espaço para um rally sustentável.

O prêmio dos contratos futuros sinaliza que tudo está bem.

Um vendedor de contratos futuros normalmente exigirá um prêmio de preço para as bolsas à vista regulares. Esta situação acontece em todos os mercados de derivativos e não é exclusiva dos mercados criptográficos. Além do risco de liquidez da bolsa, o vendedor está adiando a liquidação, portanto, o preço é mais alto.

Mercados saudáveis tendem a negociar com um prêmio anualizado de 5% a 15%, conhecido como taxa base. Por outro lado, os futuros estão sendo negociados abaixo das bolsas à vista regulares, indicando um sentimento de baixa de curto prazo.
Bitcoin 3 meses de futuros anualizados.

Como o gráfico acima indica, a última vez que a BTC realizou um prêmio de 15% foi no dia 18 de agosto, e desde então eles têm mantido uma taxa ligeiramente positiva. O rally de sexta-feira não foi suficiente para causar uma alavancagem excessiva, reforçando assim a tese de cobertura de curto prazo explicada anteriormente.

Para melhor avaliar como os comerciantes estão se posicionando como BTC parece estabelecer $11.000 como um novo nível de suporte, deve-se monitorar os rácios de longo e curto prazo das bolsas.

Os melhores negociadores são 20% de longo prazo líquido.

Mesmo que cada mercado futuro seja equilibrado entre compradores (longs) e vendedores (shorts), as posições dos principais traders podem diferir de uma base de clientes mais ampla.

Ao agregar exclusivamente as posições líquidas dos top traders, pode-se determinar o quão em alta ou em baixa suas apostas são.
OKEx relação BTC longo/curto para negociantes de primeira linha. Fonte: OKEx: OKEx

De acordo com os dados da OKEx, a relação longa/curta dos negociantes de topo na base do câmbio foi de 0,75 em 9 de outubro. Este valor traduz uma posição líquida curta de 25% e pode ser interpretado como em baixa.

Durante as 24 horas seguintes, estes comerciantes não apenas fecharam seus shorts, mas também reverteram para uma posição líquida longa de 25%. Este é um bom indicador de uma recuperação confiável, ao contrário de um simples cenário de cobertura de curto prazo.
A relação Binance Top Traders BTC longo/curto. Fonte: Posições

Os dados de posição no mercado retratam uma situação semelhante, já que a relação de longo e curto prazo de seus principais comerciantes aumentou de 9% para 23% de comprimento líquido durante o mesmo período. Vale a pena observar que as metodologias entre as trocas variam. Portanto, deve-se monitorar as mudanças em vez de números absolutos.

Os dados acima indicam que os principais comerciantes estavam, de fato, muito aquém do recente aumento dos preços do BTC. O prêmio de futuros foi mantido em um nível positivo e saudável, abrindo espaço para uma maior alavancagem do lado da compra.

Em vez de apostar em um típico „padrão Bart Simpson“, os principais comerciantes mudaram sua postura e agora estão se inclinando em alta, apoiando a tese de uma corrida de touro para $14.000.

No futuro, os comerciantes poderão considerar mudar suas posições de acordo com os dados, em vez de especular sobre como os movimentos de preços podem ou não desencadear mudanças de tendência.

Não importa se a oscilação de preços mantém relação com a recente aquisição da Square de 4.709 Bitcoin. Se os principais comerciantes estão ficando em alta, isso é normalmente um sinal de que a tendência está se fortalecendo nessa direção.